The Future Is Now

Back in May I blogged about ‘A Glimpse of the Future’ where I discussed the effect WHTI would have on Canada/US relations, travel, and commerce. I ended that post with this:

And through all this, those that depend on business from their neighbours over the border, in both countries, are the ones suffering.

As one person said when calling in to the radio station:

"We used to go down every week and a half, but if this keeps up, we'll be lucky if we go down every four to six weeks."

This is not a fad, this is not temporary. This is a glimpse of the future of Canada/US relations.

A recent article posted on USA Today’s website entitled “Border traffic plunges under passport policy” provides some validity to the repercussions strengthening the border has spawned.

First, a stat showing that the number of privately owned vehicles entering the US border in June and July (from north and south combined) has dropped by approximately 2 million from last year; almost 4 million from 2005.

A Buffalo NY border crossing region saw a 13% decline in privately owned vehicles coming into the US.

An amusement park 10 minutes from the Canadian border has seen 1/3 fewer Canadian families coming down for the “Canadian Wednesdays” promotion they run.

A US based charter bus company has cut the number of trips it makes to an Ontario based casino in half because people there would rather spend their money gambling locally than get a passport to go out of country.

And yet, with these and other examples of reduced cross-border commerce, CBP is still standing firm that the passport requirements and other WHTI related policies have nothing to do with the decline in border traffic. From the article:

CBP officials say the change has made border crossings safer and more efficient and isn't to blame for declining numbers. Fewer people have been coming to the USA via land borders since 9/11, says Colleen Manaher, initiative director.

Compliance has been high; 95% of affected travelers arrive at the borders with proper documents, she says. "You have to look at this in totality," she says. "There is the recession, exchange rates, gas prices. There's border violence, there's weather."

So, I’ll give Colleen the benefit of the doubt that she’s talking about north *and* south borders. But let’s focus on Canada here, which btw was the only country that had changes initiated. Mexican citizens already had document requirements for entering the US.

Canada doesn’t have border violence, not anywhere remotely close to the US/Mexico issues. Weather? Did she really say the weather was a factor? I’m not sure what types of extreme weather are affecting Canadians from crossing into the US.

The recession had the uncanny timing of showing up as WHTI was going into effect, but I’ll grant that it must be factored into people not going out and doing shopping across the border as much.

Exchange rates have not been terrible over the last year. According to xe.com, today the Canadian dollar is worth .93 US. Gas prices high? I think that’s an easy scapegoat.

No, the key reason that Canadians and Americans are sticking to their own side of the border rests with the document requirements that the US has enforced on itself and its neighbours. The cost in dollars and time all to appease a government already seen as overly paranoid just doesn’t seem worth it. DoHS can deny that all they want, but when you talk to the people being directly affected by it, you can tell who’s a more valid source.

People like Mike McGuire, the spokesman for that amusement park I mentioned above. He states:

“We used to cater a few picnics for Canadian businesses. A couple have told us they can't do it because they can't force their workers to get passports.

Where it really hurts is the impulse buy. Mom and Dad are sitting at home on a Saturday afternoon and say, 'Hey, let's go to Fantasy Island. Wait, we can't because we don't have … passports.' "

Funny that Mike didn’t suggest the reason they don’t come down as gas prices, the exchange rate, or the weather.